BEILIN PUSHED FOR PALESTINIAN POLL ON HIS PLAN

Source: Independent Media Review & Analysis.

by Aaron Lerner

The random sample of 1,152 Palestinians age 18 and over in the West Bank [757] and Gaza [395] who were interviewed face-to-face on 13 and 14 December 1996 finds overwhelming opposition to elements of the "Beilin Mazen Plan". 84.1% opposed any final solution proposing annexing Israeli settlements to Israel in return for giving the Palestinians land near the Egyptian borders. 73.2% say that the solution of the refugee issue should guarantee their right to return back to their homes that they were forced to leave in 1948 and only 19.4% would agree to limit the right of return to within the Palestinian state. Only 9% agreed to keeping Jerusalem unified and the capital of Israel with Abu Deis as the Palestinian Capital and the Aqasa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock outside of Israel's sovereignty and administered by the Palestinians (85% disagreed).

Special tabulations of the results prepared by JMCC for IMRA find that women [15.3%], respondents over age 50 [13.6%] and those with less than a college education [16.3%] were more likely to agree to limiting the right of return to within the Palestinian state. Refugee camp residents [90.2%] and respondents age 18-35 [87.8%] were more likely to opposed a unified Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Women [18.8%] and respondents over age 50 [28.0%] were more likely to agree to allowing settlers to remain under Palestinian sovereignty.

The complete transcript of IMRA's interview as well as the special tabulations follow:

IMRA interviewed Ghassam Khatib, head of the Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre, in English, on 2 January, 1997:

IMRA: There are a number of questions in your latest survey relating to elements of the "Beilin-Mazen Plan". Have you asked any of these questions in the past which would indicate if there has been a change in attitudes over time?

Khatib: Not at all. Actually, some aides of Yosse Beilin approached us to do a complete survey about the Plan and Abu Mazen opposed the idea saying that there isn't a document which is agreed upon. When I said I would do the survey he said he would go public and deny it so we went forward and only asked a number of questions regarding elements of the Plan.

IMRA: A quarter of your respondents live in refugee camps. Did you find any statistically significant difference in their replies? What about on the right of return to within Israel's borders?

Khatib: We did not do any cross tabulations on this subject. It would be our pleasure to run special tabulations for you [tabulations appear below - IMRA].

IMRA: Back in the June survey you asked if it is possible to reach an agreed solution to the disputes which have been postponed to the permanent arrangement and the results were quite close - 48% "No" as compared to 44% "Yes". How do you think this jibes with the rejection of the Beilin-Mazen Plan"?

Khatib: It seems that the people who had in mind the possibility of a solution do not have in mind the kind of solution in the "Beilin Mazen Plan".

IMRA: Is it Palestinian opinion that the Israeli position will, with time, erode to the point that the Israelis will accept the Palestinian position on the right of return to within Israel's borders?

Khatib: If you use the question regarding optimism/pessimism [74.6% were "optimistic" or "somewhat optimistic towards the Palestinian future"] this gives some indication, but we haven't asked a specific question.

IMRA: Do you have any indication that the lack of anonymity in your polling affects the responses?

Khatib: In general no, but with one exception. We noticed that there was a hesitancy regarding support for Hamas during the crackdown.

IMRA: Who does your surveys?

Khatib: We use graduate students. Most of them are female. We found that females get more trust when they enter a house. Most of them are housewives who are not employed and they welcome the part time work. They work two to three days a month and it provides them with a regular income. We train all of our field workers.

IMRA: Do you think that your face-to-face interviews are more accurate than the telephone interviews in Israel?

Khatib: In our situation, telephone surveys are not reliable because the rate of penetration of telephones is low. We tried it once and it wasn't good. In Israel or the West this is different because most people there have phones, but there are whole villages and refugee camps which do not have telephones.

The following are special tabulations prepared by Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre [JMCC] for IMRA from the random sample of 1,152 Palestinians age 18 and over in the West Bank [757] and Gaza [395] who were interviewed face-to-face on 13 and 14 December 1996.

11. In the framework of the final status negotiations, would you support the idea that says that Israel could annex settlement blocs that comprise a Jewish majority in return for land to be given to the Palestinians near the Egyptian borders?

                           Agree   Disagree    No opinion Number
Total                      6.7%     84.1%       9.2%      1,152
Male                       6.5%     86.8%       6.7%        568
Female                     6.9%     81.4%      11.7%        581
Reside in refugee camp     4.9%     85.6%       9.5%        285
18-35                      6.5%     86.1%       7.4%        784
36-50                      5.0%     83.9%      11.0%        218
Over 50                    9.1%     74.2%      16.7%        132
No college education       6.0%     83.9%      10.1%        700
College education          7.6%     84.6%       7.8%        436

12. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you agree or disagree with the idea that says that settlers could remain under Palestinian sovereignty?

                          Agree   Disagree    No opinion Number
Total                     24.4%     70.0%       5.7%      1,152
Male                      29.8%     65.3%       4.9%        568
Female                    18.8%     74.9%       6.3%        581
Reside in refugee camp    22.5%     73.0%       4.6%        285
18-35                     25.1%     70.2%       4.7%        784
36-50                     20.2%     74.8%       5.1%        218
Over 50                   28.0%     60.6%      11.4%        132
No college education      25.0%     69.4%       5.6%        700
College education         23.2%     70.9%       6.0%        436

13. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you agree that the solution to the refugee issue would be to grant them the right of return only to the Palestinian state only, or would you say that the solution should guarantee their right to return back to their homes that they were forced to leave in 1948?

                          Within   1948
                          State    Homes     No opinion Number
Total                     19.4%     73.2%       7.4%      1,152
Male                      23.6%     70.4%       6.0%        568
Female                    15.3%     75.9%       8.8%        581
Reside in refugee camp    17.9%     77.9%       4.2%        285
18-35                     20.9%     73.0%       6.1%        784
36-50                     18.3%     72.0%       9.6%        218
Over 50                   13.6%     75.8%      10.6%        132
No college education      16.3%     75.0%       8.7%        700
College education         24.3%     70.4%       5.3%        436

14. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you support the idea that says that Jerusalem remains unified and a capital of Israel, and to have Jerusalem (Abu Deis), which lies outside the boundaries of present Jerusalem, as the Palestinian Capital, and provided that the Aqasa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock be outside Israel's sovereignty and administered by the Palestinians?

                          Agree   Disagree    No opinion Number
Total                      9.0%     85.0%       6.0%      1,152
Male                       9.5%     86.6%       3.9%        568
Female                     8.4%     83.5%       8.1%        581
Reside in refugee camp     4.2%     90.2%       5.6%        285
18-35                      7.5%     87.8%       4.7%        784
36-50                     12.4%     81.2%       6.4%        218
Over 50                   13.6%     74.2%      12.1%        132
No college education       8.6%     84.3%       7.1%        700
College education          9.4%     86.2%       4.4%        436

For free fax subscription, please send request to imra@netvision.net.il Fax service limited to: American area codes 212, 313, 503, 514 (Montreal), 541, 718, 813 (Tampa) as well as Athens(+30 1), Lisbon (+351-1), Croatia (+385), Zagreb (+385-1), United Kingdom (+44), Sweden (+46), Australia (+61 - Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney, Darwin), Seoul (+82-2), Hong Kong (+852)