BEILIN PUSHED FOR PALESTINIAN POLL ON HIS PLAN
Media Review & Analysis.
by Aaron Lerner
2 January 1997
Ghassam Khatib, who heads the Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre [JMCC],
told IMRA today that Labor MK Yosse Beilin's aides asked him to poll Palestinians
to see if they would accept the "Beilin Mazen Plan." Abu Mazen opposed polling
on the Plan on the grounds that no such plan exists and warned that he would
make a public statement on the matter if the JMCC did such a poll. As a compromise,
the JMCC polled on the key elements of the "Beilin Mazen Plan" without identifying
it as such.
The random sample of 1,152 Palestinians age 18 and over in the West Bank
 and Gaza  who were interviewed face-to-face on 13 and 14 December
1996 finds overwhelming opposition to elements of the "Beilin Mazen Plan".
84.1% opposed any final solution proposing annexing Israeli settlements
to Israel in return for giving the Palestinians land near the Egyptian
borders. 73.2% say that the solution of the refugee issue should guarantee
their right to return back to their homes that they were forced to leave
in 1948 and only 19.4% would agree to limit the right of return to within
the Palestinian state. Only 9% agreed to keeping Jerusalem unified and
the capital of Israel with Abu Deis as the Palestinian Capital and the
Aqasa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock outside of Israel's sovereignty and
administered by the Palestinians (85% disagreed).
Special tabulations of the results prepared by JMCC for IMRA find that
women [15.3%], respondents over age 50 [13.6%] and those with less than
a college education [16.3%] were more likely to agree to limiting the right
of return to within the Palestinian state. Refugee camp residents [90.2%]
and respondents age 18-35 [87.8%] were more likely to opposed a unified
Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Women [18.8%] and respondents over age 50
[28.0%] were more likely to agree to allowing settlers to remain under
The complete transcript of IMRA's interview as well as the special tabulations
IMRA interviewed Ghassam Khatib, head of the Jerusalem Media & Communication
Centre, in English, on 2 January, 1997:
IMRA: There are a number of questions in your latest survey relating
to elements of the "Beilin-Mazen Plan". Have you asked any of these questions
in the past which would indicate if there has been a change in attitudes
Khatib: Not at all. Actually, some aides of Yosse Beilin approached us
to do a complete survey about the Plan and Abu Mazen opposed the idea saying
that there isn't a document which is agreed upon. When I said I would do
the survey he said he would go public and deny it so we went forward and
only asked a number of questions regarding elements of the Plan.
IMRA: A quarter of your respondents live in refugee camps. Did you find
any statistically significant difference in their replies? What about on
the right of return to within Israel's borders?
Khatib: We did not do any cross tabulations on this subject. It would
be our pleasure to run special tabulations for you [tabulations appear
below - IMRA].
IMRA: Back in the June survey you asked if it is possible to reach an
agreed solution to the disputes which have been postponed to the permanent
arrangement and the results were quite close - 48% "No" as compared to
44% "Yes". How do you think this jibes with the rejection of the Beilin-Mazen
Khatib: It seems that the people who had in mind the possibility of a
solution do not have in mind the kind of solution in the "Beilin Mazen
IMRA: Is it Palestinian opinion that the Israeli position will, with
time, erode to the point that the Israelis will accept the Palestinian
position on the right of return to within Israel's borders?
Khatib: If you use the question regarding optimism/pessimism [74.6% were "optimistic" or "somewhat
optimistic towards the Palestinian future"] this gives some indication,
but we haven't asked a specific question.
IMRA: Do you have any indication that the lack of anonymity in your polling
affects the responses?
Khatib: In general no, but with one exception. We noticed that there
was a hesitancy regarding support for Hamas during the crackdown.
IMRA: Who does your surveys?
Khatib: We use graduate students. Most of them are female. We found that
females get more trust when they enter a house. Most of them are housewives
who are not employed and they welcome the part time work. They work two
to three days a month and it provides them with a regular income. We train
all of our field workers.
IMRA: Do you think that your face-to-face interviews are more accurate
than the telephone interviews in Israel?
Khatib: In our situation, telephone surveys are not reliable because
the rate of penetration of telephones is low. We tried it once and it wasn't
good. In Israel or the West this is different because most people there
have phones, but there are whole villages and refugee camps which do not
The following are special tabulations prepared by Jerusalem Media & Communication
Centre [JMCC] for IMRA from the random sample of 1,152 Palestinians age
18 and over in the West Bank  and Gaza  who were interviewed
face-to-face on 13 and 14 December 1996.
11. In the framework of the final status negotiations, would you support
the idea that says that Israel could annex settlement blocs that comprise
a Jewish majority in return for land to be given to the Palestinians near
the Egyptian borders?
Agree Disagree No opinion Number
Total 6.7% 84.1% 9.2% 1,152
Male 6.5% 86.8% 6.7% 568
Female 6.9% 81.4% 11.7% 581
Reside in refugee camp 4.9% 85.6% 9.5% 285
18-35 6.5% 86.1% 7.4% 784
36-50 5.0% 83.9% 11.0% 218
Over 50 9.1% 74.2% 16.7% 132
No college education 6.0% 83.9% 10.1% 700
College education 7.6% 84.6% 7.8% 436
12. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you
agree or disagree with the idea that says that settlers could
remain under Palestinian sovereignty?
Agree Disagree No opinion Number
Total 24.4% 70.0% 5.7% 1,152
Male 29.8% 65.3% 4.9% 568
Female 18.8% 74.9% 6.3% 581
Reside in refugee camp 22.5% 73.0% 4.6% 285
18-35 25.1% 70.2% 4.7% 784
36-50 20.2% 74.8% 5.1% 218
Over 50 28.0% 60.6% 11.4% 132
No college education 25.0% 69.4% 5.6% 700
College education 23.2% 70.9% 6.0% 436
13. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you agree
that the solution to the refugee issue would be to grant them the
right of return only to the Palestinian state only, or would you
say that the solution should guarantee their right to return back
to their homes that they were forced to leave in 1948?
State Homes No opinion Number
Total 19.4% 73.2% 7.4% 1,152
Male 23.6% 70.4% 6.0% 568
Female 15.3% 75.9% 8.8% 581
Reside in refugee camp 17.9% 77.9% 4.2% 285
18-35 20.9% 73.0% 6.1% 784
36-50 18.3% 72.0% 9.6% 218
Over 50 13.6% 75.8% 10.6% 132
No college education 16.3% 75.0% 8.7% 700
College education 24.3% 70.4% 5.3% 436
14. In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you
support the idea that says that Jerusalem remains unified and a
capital of Israel, and to have Jerusalem (Abu Deis), which lies
outside the boundaries of present Jerusalem, as the Palestinian
Capital, and provided that the Aqasa Mosque and the Dome of the
Rock be outside Israel's sovereignty and administered by the
Agree Disagree No opinion Number
Total 9.0% 85.0% 6.0% 1,152
Male 9.5% 86.6% 3.9% 568
Female 8.4% 83.5% 8.1% 581
Reside in refugee camp 4.2% 90.2% 5.6% 285
18-35 7.5% 87.8% 4.7% 784
36-50 12.4% 81.2% 6.4% 218
Over 50 13.6% 74.2% 12.1% 132
No college education 8.6% 84.3% 7.1% 700
College education 9.4% 86.2% 4.4% 436
Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-9-7411645
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